Assessing The Winners And Losers In Trump's Middle East Diplomacy

5 min read Post on May 18, 2025

Assessing The Winners And Losers In Trump's Middle East Diplomacy

The Abraham Accords: Unprecedented Successes and Unresolved Issues

The Abraham Accords, brokered by the Trump administration, represent a landmark achievement in Trump's Middle East diplomacy. These normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations – the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan – reshaped regional dynamics.

Normalization of Relations:

UAE: Gained enhanced security cooperation with Israel, access to advanced Israeli technology, and expanded economic opportunities, including tourism and investment.
Bahrain: Strengthened its strategic partnership with Israel, benefiting from economic ties and security collaboration against shared regional threats.
Morocco: Secured US recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel, boosting its international standing and potentially attracting further investment.
Sudan: Improved its international relations and potentially accessed economic aid and investment opportunities as a result of normalization.

However, the Accords have faced criticism:

Palestinian Concerns: The agreements were widely criticized by the Palestinians for bypassing their central role in the peace process and failing to address their core grievances.
Lack of Progress on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Accords did little to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, leaving the underlying issues unresolved and fueling ongoing tensions.

Long-Term Implications:

The Abraham Accords hold both promise and peril.

Potential for Wider Regional Peace: The Accords could potentially pave the way for further normalization agreements with other Arab nations, contributing to greater regional stability.
Challenges to Achieving Lasting Stability: The underlying tensions and unresolved issues, especially the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, pose significant challenges to achieving long-term peace and stability in the region. Further conflict could easily unravel the progress made.

Iran and the Nuclear Deal: A Legacy of Uncertainty

A defining aspect of Trump's Middle East diplomacy was his decision to withdraw the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal, in 2018.

Withdrawal from the JCPOA:

Sanctions on Iran: The withdrawal led to the re-imposition of stringent economic sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil exports and financial sector.
Iran's Response: Iran responded by gradually scaling back its commitments under the JCPOA, enriching uranium closer to weapons-grade levels.

Regional Implications:

The withdrawal from the JCPOA significantly destabilized the region.

Increased Regional Tensions: The move heightened regional tensions, leading to increased proxy conflicts and a heightened risk of direct confrontation between the US and Iran.
Potential for Future Escalation or Renewed Negotiations: The future of the Iran nuclear issue remains uncertain, with potential for further escalation or, conversely, renewed diplomatic efforts to revive the JCPOA or negotiate a new agreement.

The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: A Stalled Peace Process

Trump's approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was marked by his controversial "peace plan," released in 2020.

Trump's Peace Plan:

Proposed Solutions: The plan proposed a two-state solution with significant concessions from the Palestinians, including limitations on Palestinian sovereignty.
Benefits and Drawbacks: While proponents argued it offered a framework for peace, critics condemned it as heavily biased in favor of Israel.
Reasons for Palestinian Rejection: The Palestinian Authority rejected the plan outright, citing its unfairness and failure to address their core concerns regarding settlements, Jerusalem, and refugees.

The Impact on the Two-State Solution:

Trump's policies further complicated the already fragile situation.

Growth of Israeli Settlements: The Trump administration's stance did little to curb the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, undermining the viability of a contiguous Palestinian state.
Deterioration of Trust: The policies eroded trust between Israelis and Palestinians, making a negotiated solution even more difficult to achieve.

Other Key Players and Shifting Alliances

Trump's policies also impacted other regional players and their alliances. For example:

Saudi Arabia: While maintaining close ties with the US, Saudi Arabia sought to diversify its partnerships, reflecting a more independent foreign policy.
Syria: The Trump administration's approach to Syria was marked by a relatively hands-off policy compared to the Obama administration, resulting in a power vacuum that was filled by other actors, primarily Russia and Iran.

These shifts in alliances had broader implications for regional stability and power dynamics.

Conclusion: A Critical Assessment of Trump's Middle East Diplomacy

Trump's Middle East diplomacy produced a mixed legacy. While the Abraham Accords represent a significant achievement in normalizing relations between Israel and some Arab nations, his withdrawal from the JCPOA and his approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict further destabilized the region. The key beneficiaries were primarily Israel and certain Arab nations participating in the Abraham Accords, while the Palestinians, Iran, and regional stability were among the main losers. The long-term consequences of his policies remain to be seen, but they have undeniably reshaped the political landscape of the Middle East.

To delve deeper into the intricacies of this complex political landscape, explore further resources on the Abraham Accords, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and continue the conversation on the lasting impact of Trump’s Middle East diplomacy.