Drought Prediction: Lessons From 1968's Spring And Its Impact On Summer

5 min read Post on May 28, 2025

Drought Prediction: Lessons From 1968's Spring And Its Impact On Summer

Meteorological Conditions of Spring 1968

Rainfall Deficits

Spring 1968 witnessed significantly below-average rainfall across many regions. This 1968 drought started with a dramatic decrease in precipitation, setting the stage for the severe summer drought. The rainfall deficit varied geographically, but many areas experienced a reduction of 50% or more compared to historical averages.

Specific locations affected: The Midwest and Southern Plains of the United States were particularly hard hit, although the impact varied depending on the specific location and microclimate.
Percentage rainfall decrease: Many regions reported rainfall decreases ranging from 40% to 70% below the historical average for the spring months.
Comparison to previous years: The 1968 spring drought was notably more severe than the previous few years, which had experienced relatively normal or above-average rainfall.

Temperature Anomalies

Adding to the already concerning lack of rainfall, spring 1968 also saw higher-than-average temperatures in many affected areas. These unusually high temperatures exacerbated the drought conditions through increased evaporation rates, further depleting soil moisture.

Average temperatures: Many regions experienced temperatures 2-5 degrees Fahrenheit above the historical average for spring.
Heatwave events: Several heatwaves occurred during the spring, intensifying the stress on vegetation and accelerating water loss from the soil.
Impact on soil moisture: The combination of low rainfall and high temperatures led to critically low soil moisture levels, leaving the ground parched and unprepared for the summer months.

Snowpack Analysis

The preceding winter's snowpack played a crucial role in setting the stage for the 1968 drought. The winter of 1967-1968 saw below-average snowfall in many key regions. The meager snowpack melted rapidly in the spring, contributing little to the replenishment of water resources.

Snowpack levels: Snowpack levels were significantly below average, particularly in mountain regions that serve as crucial water sources for downstream communities.
Melt rates: The rapid melting of the limited snowpack further diminished the already low water reserves.
Impact on water resources: The low snowpack exacerbated the spring drought, resulting in lower river flows and reduced reservoir levels as the summer months approached.

Impact of the Spring Drought on Summer 1968

Agricultural Consequences

The spring drought had catastrophic consequences for agriculture. The lack of soil moisture severely impacted crop yields, leading to significant economic losses for farmers.

Specific crops affected: Corn, soybeans, and wheat were particularly vulnerable, experiencing significant yield reductions.
Yield reductions: Many farmers reported yield losses of 50% or more for their main crops.
Economic impact on farming communities: The drought led to widespread economic hardship in rural agricultural communities, with many farmers facing financial ruin.

Water Resource Shortages

The impact extended beyond agriculture to overall water resources. Reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater levels fell to critically low levels.

Reservoir levels: Many reservoirs were at their lowest levels in decades.
River flow reductions: River flows were drastically reduced, impacting navigation and hydroelectric power generation.
Groundwater depletion: Farmers and communities relied heavily on groundwater, leading to accelerated depletion.
Impact on water availability for human consumption: Water restrictions and rationing became necessary in many areas.

Wildfires and Other Extreme Events

The dry conditions created by the spring and summer drought significantly increased the risk of wildfires.

Number of wildfires: The number of wildfires increased dramatically compared to previous years.
Area burned: Vast areas of land were scorched by wildfires, causing significant ecological damage.
Impact on air quality: The smoke from wildfires caused significant air pollution problems, impacting public health.
Other extreme weather events: The drought may also have contributed to intensified heat waves, further straining water resources and increasing health risks.

Lessons Learned and Improvements in Drought Prediction

Advances in Forecasting Technology

Since 1968, there have been significant advancements in meteorological technology and modeling that have greatly improved drought prediction.

Improved satellite imagery: Satellites provide high-resolution data on soil moisture, vegetation health, and precipitation patterns.
Advanced climate models: Sophisticated climate models allow for more accurate predictions of long-term weather patterns and drought risks.
Data assimilation techniques: Techniques that combine observations and model simulations lead to more accurate predictions.

Early Warning Systems

While early warning systems have improved, there's still room for enhancements.

Strengths and weaknesses of current systems: Existing systems are effective in identifying drought conditions, but communication and response times can be improved.
Suggestions for improved communication: Improved communication channels and community engagement can ensure that information reaches those who need it most.
Data sharing: Better data sharing between agencies and researchers can lead to more robust and comprehensive predictions.

The Role of Climate Change

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of drought events.

Projected changes in rainfall patterns: Climate models project changes in rainfall patterns, including more intense periods of drought in some regions.
Increased temperatures: Rising temperatures will exacerbate drought conditions through increased evaporation.
Impact on drought frequency and severity: Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts globally.

Conclusion: Improving Drought Prediction for a More Secure Future

The 1968 drought serves as a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of inadequate drought prediction and preparedness. By understanding the lessons from past droughts, like the impactful 1968 drought, and embracing advancements in drought prediction, we can build more resilient communities and safeguard our future against the devastating effects of water scarcity. We must invest in improved early warning systems, enhance data sharing and analysis, and integrate climate change projections into our drought prediction models to ensure accurate drought prediction for a more secure future. Learn more about drought prediction resources and support initiatives aimed at improving forecasting accuracy. Let's work together to mitigate the impact of future summer droughts and build a more resilient world. Improved accurate drought prediction is crucial for our collective future.